It is difficult to evaluate condition of a Russian economy now. Crash of a state statistics and governmental supervision together with the legalisation of a "shadow" activities of a former Soviet period created entirely new situation. The main characteristic of this situation is an absence of any publicly available indicators of the economy "health".
Severe conditions and difficulties in some regions or industries are now resulting not only from the economical premises, but also from the political interests on all levels - from the federal republics to single enterprises with their "small-scale" political life. Privatisation of undervalued state property created strong incentives to the management to magnify all the negative details and carefully hide all hopeful information.
After the end of privatisation and finishing of shares offering situation changes completely. Managers of the newly privatised enterprises together with the new businessmen start to compete for investments. Huge savings of the Russian people are going now mostly into the speculative securities or even are put in a classical pyramid schemes. This source of investment is now exploited by the more dynamic new enterprises, but privatised ones are already turning to this source of finance
Those tendencies allow us to assume that there are resources now in Russia to finish restructuring of the economy. Enormous growth potential of Russia with its natural resources and still almost empty consumption market is attracting foreign investments. It is safe to assume that as soon as domestic investment will go into the economy, foreign investors will show great interest both in the goods market and in the financial market of Russia.
Political stability now becomes the chief factor for the development of Russia. We are sure that in the absence of political disturbances the economy will show growth rate unmatched in the world history.
Current political situation in Russia is not very satisfactory yet. New forms of federal governance are only appearing. New parliament is only learning to perform its functions. Nevertheless there is general understanding that civil peace achieved recently will help to almost all constructive political forces.
There are three major sectors of Russian economy now. The first is state sector, now mostly constituted by the public services, military and other strategic enterprises. The second - privatised enterprises sector. Though in this sector there are now independent enterprises formally , they are only learning to live in the new conditions. Government still has a big share in some of them, especially in the oil and gas sector.
The third sector is new enterprises created mostly by the new businessmen. It is hard sometimes to distinguish between various scams and really existing enterprises with good business running. To this third sector belong almost all financial companies (mostly banks). Retail trading is also developed mostly by the enterprises of this sector.
As far as the equity market is concerned, only the second and the third sectors are important for this survey. In terms of capitalisation privatised enterprises constitute a major part of the shares issued. But those shares are now rather "dead" weight. Real trading starts only after the managers realise new conditions they are in and importance of securities market in those conditions. This is the reason why in the liquid market sector the companies from the third sector form a majority.
It is possible to assume that in the near future difference between privatised enterprises and new enterprises from the securities market view point will be lesser then it is now.
In this part of the report short summaries on the most interesting sectors of Russian economy are included. The sectors are selected for the following reasons:
Oil and gas are now the main export category in Russian economy. Privatisation of the industry started very successfully. Government control over the industry is left for approximately 3 years. If the policy undertaken will last, in 1998-1999 the industry will be in a private hands (with the possible exception of gas monopolist Gazprom).
Export quote lifting and liberalisation of internal fuel market is awaited in 1994-1995. Modernisation of equipment and implementation of new technologies is done in Russia now with the strong participation of foreign oil companies.
Oil industry privatisation is done in the form of big vertically integrated holding companies - from the well to the roadside gas station. Each of those companies can be potentially a successful competitor to major western oil giants.
There are currently 5 of those companies formed with probably 2 or 3 to follow. The shares of new holding companies and shares of their subsidiaries are already traded. This market sector has now greatest capitalisation and is one of the most liquid.
International investors already show a great interest in this sector. Direct investment is flowing in the industry for the last 3 years. Appearance of the shares in market immediately attracted attention of portfolio investors. Foreign and Russian institutional investors trying to acquire minority position in those enterprises are now the main source of liquidity in this market.
Banking sector is now the most advanced sector among new sectors of Russian economy. Insurance companies are rapidly developing but they are not present in the equity market yet. Investment funds, pension funds and other types of institutional investors are in the stage of creation and had not gained their share in the financial sector yet.
Bank sector is now the key element in Russian economy. This sector is characterised by the strong competitiveness. It is still relatively easy to enter in the banking business in Russia.
Several reasons exist for this quick development:
In order to increase soundness and reliability of banking system Central Bank is now raising its minimal capital requirements and tightening its control. Banks are competing now with the small speculative-oriented trust companies offering more attractive rates to individuals. In order to win this competition banks are offering new services for individuals. The big struggle is now going in the credit and debit cards sector (both international and domestic cards are offered by a growing number of banks). It is a new and developing business now for Russian banks.
Transport infrastructure in Russia is very poor. But the size of the country itself and its position on the globe makes Russia one of the key elements in the world transportation system.
Growth potential of Russian sea ports is enormous. Privatisation of ports was successfully performed for all Pacific ports, majority of Black Sea and Baltic ports. New programs of development are already implemented, often with the participation of foreign capital.
Russian shipping companies have a unique position in the Asia. Modernisation of fleet is undertaken now.
Air transport is still left mostly in the state property. Some private initiatives are undertaken to build new airports or to perform modernisation of old ones. New air transport companies are functioning already in the cargo transportation area and steadily gain their share in the passenger transportation.
Having in mind Russia size it is safe to assume that passenger airlines will become one of the main transportation means in the next 5-10 years. Railroads are still left in state property completely. There are no plans for privatisation yet. But foreign and Russian private capital are considering possibilities to built new railroads based on contemporary technologies (en example - Moscow - St. Petersburg high-speed railroad). It is very probable that new sector will appear in the years to come and it will require big investments.
Current state of telecommunication networks is very bad. Telephone lines are awful, long-distance calls are often time-consuming or simply impossible. But the growing demand for quality services creates a huge market.
The demand exists in all sectors - from home phone lines to cellular communication and high-capacity digital lines. Computer networks are developing exponentially and e-mail communication sometimes plays more important role then regular phone and fax.
New businessmen are ready to pay for the quality services in financial centres and in production centres (like Oil Siberia and Tyumen).
Privatisation in the field of telecommunication is going on. In big cities telephone companies are almost all privatised now. A number of joint ventures are now involved in the offering of new technologically advanced services.
Amount of capital needed to reconstruct existing telecommunication infrastructure can be raised from the equity market only. This sector can generate big profits internally and it is certain that it will grow and maybe even outperform export-oriented sectors.
Undeveloped retail trading infrastructure of former Soviet Union requires adjustments to the new situation. Consumption is growing in Russia. Strong demand for the quality goods is spreading from the big cities to the periphery. New capital is most active now in Russia in the creation of import routes and tries to build its own retail system. Starting from the elite oriented goods, new companies seek to increase there clients base.
Privatisation put almost all medium and small shops in Russia in the hands of the management. Only a handful of biggest stores in the big cities were transformed in the joint-stock companies. But those are already very active in the money raising. The retail trading sector is broadly represented in the secondary market, being the third after banks and oil-gas sector in terms of number of companies traded.
Capitalisation of this sector is not very high yet. But one strong tendency is apparent now: new companies are buying out privatised shops and including them into their own chains. This process can create a strong demand for the capital from those companies.
Consumer goods import is one of the most profitable businesses in Russia now. Retail trading is done almost everywhere. A great number of small trading booths overflowed the cities of all Russian but the demand is rising. It gives us ground to prognose development of this sector and good revenues from investment in it.
Food processing development is also oriented to the growing domestic demand. Some unique resources of Russia (like Caspian and Far East fishing industries) are also export oriented.
Privatisation created a lot of small and medium-sized companies in this sector. New business is not very active here. We expect appearance and growth of this sector in next 2 years. It is probably rather long-term investment opportunity.
In the export-oriented areas there are probably enough resources for the time. There are still no indications that any of the companies there will appear in the market.
As all other infrastructure companies, the state is keeping a control over the energy sector. Privatisation of a huge monopolist company "Unified Energy System" was performed, but government still keeps control package in it. The energy sector is both a crucial sector for the Russian economy and an exporter (for the North Europe, for example). There are no understanding on the ways of development for this sector yet. But existence of a vast domestic market for its products and services makes us to believe that this sector will remain at least stable during years to come.
Mostly non-ferrous metallurgy is an interesting sector of Russian economy. Russia is among the leaders in the aluminium and titanium production and is a leader in export of this materials. Domestic demand is falling due to the crisis in the national machinery and aviation sectors. But the huge scientific potential makes this sector competitive on the international market. Among other non-ferrous sectors there are nickel production (Norilsk nickel), rare earth metals, copper.
All biggest enterprises in this area are already privatised. Sometimes state still keeps controlling share of the capital, but it will not be so in a year or two. Equity market is the only source of financing left now for this sector. The state share is zero for all enterprises listed below. More than 51 % was placed in the hands of employees for each enterprise. It is impossible for now to estimate the percentage which is traded in the open market. Through voucher and money auctions were placed from 11% to 40 % of those enterprises.
Though part of those shares was bought by the management, workers are selling to the outside investors now and final distribution is not clear yet. Norilsk nickel combinate was privatised according to quite different scheme. The share of 10% will be kept by the state for 3 years and 25% of capital consists of non-voting preferred shares distributed among workers. We expect appearance of the metallurgy companies in the market during 1994-1995.
Construction is a rapidly growing sector in Russia. While real-estate development is observed in the next section, construction materials production already draws attention of domestic investors. The fight for the control of leading cement plants in Russia goes sometimes dramatically. Natural resources allow to Russian enterprises satisfy growing domestic demand and export enough to survive in the new tight situation.
From construction materials asbestos and cement factories should be noticed at first. They export a lot and have even greater export potential. The most interesting are those close to sea ports, but there are also factories (like Zhiguli, Togliatti) that are close to river terminals with an access to Black sea. Above all the construction materials enjoy huge domestic demand - it is the rare industry sector where there is no or almost no production decline. Cement giants in the South and Far East of Russia are already privatised. So are many medium and small enterprises producing bricks, ceramic tiles, concrete blocks. In the big towns (especially in the capitals) construction business growth already made this industry sector the most profitable one. Opportunities to invest in this market will arise in the near future. New issues in this market sector will be an attractive instruments.
Real estate boom is starting in Russian capitals now and will spread through the country in next 2-5 years. There are several directions of development and growth so far - elite apartments, cottages construction, business centres and office buildings, hotels. Only the companies from two last sectors are available in the equity market now. With the development of real estate market (especially with the growth of the mortgage possibilities) this market will offer a great opportunities to investors. It is still hard to predict which financial instruments will appear in connection with the real estate business. It is possible that these companies will go more for the debt financing. But the report will be incomplete without the mentioning of this sector.
The development of a Russian securities and financial market started in the 1991-1992. Almost all stock exchanges were created and major commercial banks were founded then. Basic legislation on the securities issue and trading was introduced at the same time. The market rapidly developed during 1993 and first half of 1994, when thousands of enterprises became public through the privatisation.
Russian securities market is very segmented. Different sectors abide by different rules and offer a big variety of investment opportunities. This survey is restricted to the financial investments in the most liquid markets. Equity and debt instruments with the sufficient volume of trading and performance history are already present in the market. Existence of a "fair price" (mostly in the form of quotations by the big and known market-makers) allows to construct a portfolio and safely acquire a minority positions in a relatively broad set of enterprises.
We have to mention that thinly traded undervalued securities can offer a good investment opportunities to a strategic investor with the interests in a specific industry sector. This market can also bring a good short-term profit to the speculator with orientation towards acquisitions and merger activities. Information on this speculative and somewhat "shadowed" market is available, but it is hard to perform an all-encompassing review.
Russian government issued a number of debt instruments during last 3 years. Only short-term zero-coupon bonds were a real success and play an important role now in the Russian financial market. This is the single most liquid and organised sector in the Russian securities market. Short-term bonds are traded daily on the Moscow International Currency Exchange by the authorised dealers. Central Bank plays a key role in this market, acting as a trader for the government of Russia.
Short-term bonds market offers a good opportunities both for short-term speculation and for the efficient management of liquid reserve funds.
This market is expanding both in volume and in number of instruments. Now 3-month and 6-month zero coupon bonds are traded, and 1-year issues are planned.
Dollar denominated "Taiga" Bonds are issued by the state in exchange for the deposits in bankrupt state bank Vnesheconombank. They are now traded at a discount by several market-makers and offer good long-term dollar return. The major risk associated with these bonds is a political one.
Bank equity instruments are the "oldest" instruments in the Russian securities market. Therefore they have the longest track record and are among the most liquid.
Common stocks of commercial banks usually are issued in series in order to provide fine tuning option for meeting the capital requirements of the Central Bank . Common stocks issued by banks usually have the same face value (there is a recent instruction of the Central Bank to ensure that banks issue the common stocks of the same face value and with the same voting rights). Some of Russian banks also issue so-called hard-currency stocks. Those usually have two face denominations (rouble and foreign currency, usually USD) and are sold for USD on the primary market and dividends are paid in USD also. The most successful issuers of bank "hard-currency" stocks are Incombank, Promstroybank, Mosbusinessbank, AvtoVAZbank, Neftekhimbank, Tveruniversalbank and Mytischy Combank.
Some Russian banks issued a limited number of preferred stocks which are usually used as grants and bonuses for employees and managers.
Dividends paid on these prefs are usually 3-7 percentage points higher than on common stocks. However, dividends on prefs due to inflation problems are not fixed figures and usually are floating rates tied to dividends on common stocks.
Banking sector is the leading sector developing now in Russian economy. Several reasons for this quick development are:
In order to increase soundness and reliability of banking system Central Bank is now raising its minimal capital requirements and tightening its control. This offers good investment opportunities as banks are now competing for the equity financing sources. Some short and medium-time opportunities arise in connection with the acquisitions of small banks by the major ones.
Banks were the first issuers to offer shares to general public. Therefore banks have the best market infrastructure and broad network of market-makers. Major banks have at least 3-4 independent market-makers in Moscow and St. Petersburg maintaining buy and sell quotations. Permanent availability of this kind of quotation and spread width is now the best criterion to distinguish liquid shares and some banking share fit it the best.
Banks are now the only issuers in Russia with a dividend history. Dividends they pay are very high, as their business is one of the most profitable. Banks are also very effective in handling dividends distribution. For stocks issued by Russian banks there exists a practice of annual dividend payments. There are banks that pay dividends on the semi-annual basis (Mosbusinessbank, Unikombank, Promstroybank, Bank StPetersburg, etc.) and even on the quoterly basis (Tveruniversalbank, Mytischinsky bank, Zapaduralbank, Vitabank etc.).
The important thing about Russian bank stocks is that their market price doesn't provide the same constant rise due to accrued dividends as one can expect and is subject to more intensive fluctuations than one can expect from the classical dividend stocks. Bank debentures.
a) Banks offer a broad range of debt instruments to the Russian market. Because of an inflationary environment those are mostly short-term instruments. Promissory notes and CD of major commercial banks offer good rate of return. Both RUR and USD - denominated instruments are available. Bonds issued by Russian banks are surveyed in the Part 5 of this report.
b) Interest rate in USD is now 10-15 per cent higher in Russia then in the foreign markets. Big banks are offering lower rates, average-size and small banks offer very high interest. Major Russian banks are now reliable enough to consider deposits in them a low-risk investment.
c) There are two sectors of legislation existing for non-government debt securities (excluding corporate bonds).
First, there exists regulation on promissory note, dated by 1937 and updated recently. These document is used by a number of Russian companies (not only banks) to start issue of promissory notes in order to raise money directly from the market without registration of any prospectus.
The second is Central Bank provisions for banking institutions. The Central Bank separately regulates the processes of issuing deposit certificates, savings certificates and promissory notes, there are also special tax and accounting provisions for each of three types of those bank debentures. Basically, there is no secondary market for promissory notes issued by non- banking institutions.
d) Deposit certificates are the receipts to confirm the terms for deposit made by an investor with a bank. There is no secondary market for CDs, CDs are sold and bought by the banks themselves. Savings certificates is the form of deposit certificates. The buyers of savings certificates are individuals only. CDs can be acquired only by the Russian legal entities. If a foreign investor wants to participate in this market, complicated scheme have to be developed.
The promissory notes are the bank debt instruments with more complicated secondary market provisions. Usually banks are trying to market their promissory notes not only as a good investment opportunity but also as a payment instrument and sometimes even as a good collateral. As a result there are a lot of bank promissory notes issues by very reliable blanks. There are sometimes special provisions for those notes to be used for clearing, payments and collateral functions. There are no restrictions on the non- resident participation in this market.
Broad-scale privatisation in Russia is based on the set of various laws, Presidential decrees and regulations of various Ministries and Committees. Chief governmental agency governing and supervising privatisation is State Committee for the Management of State Property (in Russian - Goskomimuschestvo, or GKI).
Two main ideas behind the privatisation were:
Almost all medium and large enterprises (formal criteria - number of employees greater then 1000 or book-value of assets more than 50 mln RUR in 1992) and some smaller enterprises were transformed into the joint-stock companies. A number of exceptions exist in a military industry, infrastructure, transport, health care, education, etc., where privatisation is restricted or prohibited.
There were two major types of privatisation schemes:
Remaining common shares (75 % of the capital, but 100% of voting shares) are sold at the privatisation auctions and investment tenders (10% to 15% is also sold to the employees and upper management).
There are specific schemes and requirements for some industries, like oil and gas industry.
Privatization created complicated picture for stocks issue. Major part of stocks issued in the privatization process constitute common stocks. Common stocks of privatised companies are more diverse in their face vales because of very complicated splits made on the results of voucher auctions. There are even stocks with face value of 2 roubles (ZUM Department Store) which is below official limit (there was a special permission from Ministry of Finance to ZUM to register stocks with 2 roubles face value).
Common stocks of privatised companies in their vast majority have no dividend history or have history of constant profit capitalisation (reinvestments) decisions. The rare exclusion is Trade House GUM with 2 year dividend history.
There are also preferred stocks issued within the privatization process. Some issues of preferred stocks sometimes appear on the market (such as the issue of AMO ZIL prefs).
The peculiar thing about privatised companies' stocks is that a number of them is issued in the process of "re-evaluating of assets" made by privatised companies in 1993-1994 in order to revaluate their comparatively small authorised capital (frozen before privatization process) to current market price of their basic assets. The coefficients and procedure of revaluation were established by the Ministry of Finance. Those stocks are distributed as a stock dividend among shareholders.
According to the regulations all shares of privatised enterprises in the possession of state should be sold to the public (with the exception of some industries, where control stake or "golden share" with veto power will be kept by the State for several more years).
It is worth mentioning that even the formal requirements were not satisfied completely anywhere in Russia.
For the purchase of state property special privatisation vouchers were distributed to all people in the beginning of 1993. Those bearer securities were the only legal tender for the specialised voucher auctions carried out locally as well as nation-wide during 1993 and the first half of 1994. Citizens either participated in the auctions directly, or submitted vouchers to investment funds in exchange for fund shares. They had also an option to sell voucher. Major owners of the enterprises after the privatisation (besides management) are those firms or individuals who purchased vouchers and participated in the auctions.
Often management of a specific company participated in the auction indirectly, thus increasing their share to even more than 51 %. After the end of voucher privatisation money auctions are expected to be held. Investment tenders for relatively big packages of shares are not a subject for this survey because of their orientation to strategic investors and potential partners.
For the majority of privatised enterprises secondary share market exists only for the short time after the privatisation. After the consolidation of capital in the hands of new owner almost no trading is done. This situation will change only after some enterprises will make new issues, which is now only a possibility.
Real market developed only for some larger and most interesting enterprises, especially those sold at the all-Russia interregional auctions. Demand for their shares is both domestic and international, and liquid market exists for this shares in the major financial centres.
Among this enterprises are oil companies, telecommunication companies, some Moscow hotels, factories and retail stores (Moscow companies are valued so high partly because of the real estate prices in Moscow).
Privatisation in the oil industry is being performed according to the special schemes introduced mostly by the Presidential decrees. Big integrated holding companies are created in the industry, with the daughter companies covering all production cycle from the oil well to gas station. According to the decree 38 % of the shares for each holding company are a state possession, and 38 % of the shares of daughter companies are given to the holding company. As there are 25% of preferred shares issued, 38% constitutes a majority of voting shares.
Four big holdings have been created already - YUKOS, Lukoil, Surgutneftegaz and Sidanco. For other oil companies 38% are given to a state company "Rosneft'" and more vertically integrated holdings will be formed in the industry and sold in the nearest future.
Russian gas industry is privatised as a single enterprise "Gazprom", but only natural persons can become shareholders now and it is uncertain whether any market for those shares will develop at all.
Special decrees and regulations are implemented now to facilitate bankruptcies as an instrument to restructure Russian economy. Therefore special market of bankrupt enterprise debt appeared. There are no liquid market for this instruments yet, but this promising field draws attention of investors.
New trading and service companies, created by the new generation of businessmen, were the second ones after banks to go after equity financing. Some big venture-capital firms are also raising money in this way. Unfortunately it is very hard to identify reliable issuers among various pyramid-type scams and other "junk-stocks" filling the market now. Nevertheless, a number of sound issuers well known in their business have already entered the market. Public placement in Russia can take up to 6 months due to the absence of securities market infrastructure. For this reason there is almost no secondary market for those shares yet, but existing thin market shows in some cases strong growth potential.
Stocks issued by new businesses are usually very typical by their characteristics. Those are mostly common stocks of RUR 1,000 or RUR 10,000 face value. Since fall of 1994 almost all big issues (more than RUR 10 bn) are made in a form of bearer derivatives-like CDS (certificate of a deposit of stock). Those stocks have no dividend history at all. The rare exclusions are Permavia Company (pays quarterly dividends since 1992) and Germes-Sojuz Company (pays annual dividends since 1993). New businesses are very rare to issue prefs.
The core principles of corporate bond market legislation in Russia are:
Recently most important shift in government regulation of corporate bond market has been made by the Central Bank. This body in late 1993 eliminated a number of restrictions made earlier on bank corporate bond placements. With legal climate for bank bond issues improving the first issue was registered in early 1994 with more to follow.
As for June,15,1994 the total volume of registered corporate bond issues was estimated as USD 1.6 bn (total face value of all bond issues with their prospectuses officially registered) while the total volume of placed corporate bonds was estimated as no less than USD 0.3 bn (estimates for total market value of all bonds outstanding).
Corporate bonds in Russia usually have maturity of one year. Asset-backed bonds are usually bearer bonds. The bonds usually have coupons paid on annual basis.
Asset-backed corporate bonds could be considered more like complex derivatives, and they provide capital gains to investors only when rouble value of securitized assets tend to increase.
No active secondary market exists for corporate bonds. However there are usually market-makers for each corporate bond issue to provide liquidity to the market. There are no exchanges for the localisation of secondary bond trading in Russia.
The second half of 1994 could be a first time to provide a very good framework for more successful corporate bonds issues. Interest rates declined sharply in a second quarter of 1994, more reliable corporations are going to come in the market as borrowers and more sophisticated systems of bond placements are creating in Russia with the development of bond market -- underwriters, rating agency, market-makers and institutional investors as principal buyers of bonds (to the date all bond issuers were trying to sell bonds directly to retail investors or to the dealers who deal with retail buyers).
Only dollar futures contracts market is liquid market with sufficient number of participants and vast volume. However the state-issued securities are very attractive for the development of derivatives market. Since last summer trading in futures contracts for Short-term zero coupon bonds and for Taiga bonds is performed on the Moscow Central Stock Exchange. MICEX announces development of the derivatives market in state securities as on of its goal. It is easy to predict that creation of such market on MICEX will increase volume and liquidity and turn this market into very attractive one. Short-term zero coupon bonds futures.
An average price of the Bonds at the primary auction underlies the Bond futures. One contract corresponds to one Bond of face value of RUR 100'000. Three times a week 4 nearest issues are traded. Daily volume of trading is now (September) around 600-1300 contracts. The total volume of open positions is less than 12'000 although there were periods when 20'000 contracts were outstanding. It is impossible to arrange actual delivery of Bonds because of the strict rules of MICEX depository and absence of the special agreement between exchanges. This market is now absolutely speculative with almost no hedgers.
The trading is done once a week. One contract is for one Bond of face value $1000. Now the contracts with the delivery dates on October 15 and January 15 are traded. The market would be very attractive for hedging with the increase of the volume. Up to now less than 70 contracts are opened every session and total volume of open positions up to 1000 contracts. For some tranches and dates this volume is less than 100. The market is very immature yet and it is unlikely that it will grow in volume soon due to limited number of banks and brokers dealing with this security.
The market of derivatives on state bonds is very young yet to think about its influence on the financial market. There is small hope that it will increase sharply in nearest future. Nevertheless with some skill this market can be already used to hedge some short-term positions.
At present there are 4 state-issued financial instruments traded on the Russian securities market. We plan to survey each of them and pay close attention to the most liquid and interesting. First part is dedicated to the Short- term Zero coupon State Bonds, second - to the USD Denominated Bonds. The last two parts contain survey of the 30-year Bond issue and the Gold Certificates.
In the near future the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Russia have plans to issue more debt instruments, mostly medium and long term. Private banks will also be allowed to issue state-guaranteed instruments for the financing of special investment projects.
Short-term Zero coupon State Bonds are issued with the face value of RUR100'000 for the terms of 3 months and 6 months. All trading is done through authorised dealers on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX). Bank of Russia is also a dealer on the market, authorised to trade on behalf of the state.
Primary placing for the 3-month issues takes place on the first and third Tuesday of each month. The auction of 6-month issue is scheduled on the second Tuesday.
The primary placing is done in the form of sealed-bid auction. When all competitive bids (with the price and volume of bid indicated) from the dealers are collected, bids are being accepted from the highest price down to the cut price. Cut price is determined by the Ministry of Finance basing on the volume of issue and on the bids submitted. Each auction participant has the right to submit non-competitive bids, accepted at the average price of competitive bids. The volume of non-competitive bids is restricted (as a rule less than 50% of total bids for each participant). Non-residents participation in the primary placing is limited by 10% of the total issue volume.
Bonds are completely dematerialised. All transactions are settled in the book- entry form through the depository of MICEX.
Secondary trading is done each business day with the exeption of auction days . Income from the trading and redemption is tax-free.
Short-term Bonds market is the most liquid market of the state-issued securities now. The market volume increased more than three times in the beginning of the June 94 as a result of the record volume of placements. The most significant changes appeared in this market after the success of those record issues.
This Bond market took the unique place on the Russian financial market landscape. Comparison of trading volumes for foreign currency and for Short- term Bonds shows that Bonds became much more attractive instrument for big players after the introduction of a special municipal tax on Exchange- based currency deals and after the significant increase in Bonds outstanding volume. Banks, which previously dealt mostly with foreign currencies, are now intensively working on this market. It is also successfully competeing with the interbank loan market.
The main advantages of Short-term Bonds are in the broad possibilities for the relatively complex arbitrage strategies they allow to the financial managers. The arbitrage is mostly done between different issues. Super-short term speculations available in this market have a big stabilising effect on the interbank loan market. Common usage of short-term loans in the Short-term Bond market effectively tied interbank loan rates to the Bond speculation efficiency and thus to the Bank of Russia policy in the Bond market. With the widening of the Bond market Bank of Russia gets the tool to influence loan market in more subtle ways.
Moscow Interbank Offering Rate and Moscow Interbank Bidding Rate better correlate with the Short-term Bond index then with the USD exchange rate. It shows that Bonds are now playing the key role in the Russian Money market. One more evidence to that can be found in a speech of Andrey Kaz'min, Deputy to the Minister of Finance. He said at the press-conference on May 19 that Ministry is ready to provide draft for the 1995 budget in September 1994 and that "implementing the civilised forms of budget deficit coverage" is essential, and the Short-term Bond issuing has been quoted among them.
There are plans to increase number of dealers, to launch regional trading floors, to allow for the on-line trading from remote locations. Introduction of Repurchase Agreements for Short-term Bonds is also planned. The restructuring of the debt with the introduction of a 1-year Bonds is planned for autumn. The volumes of issues are at maximum now, short-term issues will now give way to a medum ones.
The market of Short-term Bonds futures contracts is now rapidly growing on the Moscow Central Stock Exchange. Some dealers are already using the heging possibilities in their strategies.
The rates of return to maturity (annualised) are shown in the tables. The data for each trading day is shown. Gaps in the diagram appear at the auction days on which only new issue is quoted. Total volume outstanding and daily trading volumes are also presented.
Short-term Zero-Coupon State Bonds.
Daily volume of trading for Short-term Bonds.
3-months Short-term Bonds. Total Volume Outstanding.
6-months Short-term Bonds. Total Volume Outstanding.
Regulation governing issue of the Domestic USD Denominated Bonds was introduced by the Decree of the Russian Government on March 15, 1993. Those bonds are known as "Taiga Bonds" on foreign markets. Taiga Bonds were placed in five issues of different maturities (1, 3, 6, 10 and 15 years from the issuing date - May 14, 1993). Bonds are issued in bearer form, with face values of $ 1 000, $ 10 000 and $ 100 000. Annual coupons are the part of the bonds, number of coupons depends on the maturity term. Coupons are paid once a year at the annual rate of 3%.
Principal and coupon payments are paid to the bearer through the Bank of Russia, which is a chief payment agent for the Ministry of Finance. Coupon income is tax-free. Bank of Russia has assigned several banks as a second level payment agents. These banks are authorised to handle coupon and redemption payments for Taiga Bonds upon the presentation of certificate in due order. Several banks are offering custodian services for the bonds. Opening of depo account with one of authorised paying agents lowers fees for coupon payment and redemption.
Total face value of Taiga Bonds issue is USD7'885 million. The issues have the following sizes (at face value) and maturities:
2nd $1518 mln. 14.05.1996 3rd $1307 mln. 14.05.1999 4th $2627 mln. 14.05.2003 5th $2167 mln. 14.05.2008
On the May 14, 1994 the first issue at $266 mln. was redeemed exactly in time and the first coupon payments were made. Taiga Bonds emerged as a result of securitisation of the huge internal debt of the bankrupt Vnesheconombank (Soviet Union Bank for Foreign Economical Operations). The money in the accounts with Vnesheconombank were deposited by enterprises authorised to perform export-import operations in the USSR. The formation of the secondary market started spontaneously as early as at the end of December 1993. Its structure crystallised more or less in the end of March 1994 though. Foreign investors' participation helped to develop this market.
At present several market makers are known on this market. They are mostly banks, like Alpha-bank, Tveruniversalbank, Torybank, Russian Credit, Mezhkombank, Vneshtorgbank etc. Among the non-banks there are RINACO Plus, Russian Brokerage House, Russian Financial Corporation, Moscow Partners.
MICEX is trying to organise exchange trading sessions for Taiga Bonds. They plan to implement computerised trading and settlement systen, just like the Short-term Bonds system. Other Moscow exchanges are trying to develop such a market too. Nevertheless it is hardly possible to speak about any noticeable influence of the exchange market now. The market-makers prefer to restrict their activities to the OTC market. At the same time there are some indications that futures contracts trading for Taiga bonds is developing. In the tables below the average prices and yields to maturity (with accrued interest) are shown.
USD Denominated Bonds. Average market-makers pirices.
USD Denominated Bonds. Yield to maturity.
Bank of Russia started placement of the issue of Domestic State Republican Bonds (1991) only in August 1992. The Bonds were issued with the face value of RUR100'000 and expire on June 30, 2021. Bank of Russia decided to issue four tranches ("April", "July", "October", "January") and arranged the "special week" - second week in corresponding month. 13 months before every special week Bank of Russia announces repurchase prices guaranteed for this week for corresponding tranche, thus effectively turning each tranche into one-year term debt instrument. Only groups "April" and "October" are being actually offered.
Bank of Russia announces its bids and offers weekly. Annual coupon payments are established at 15%. The buyer pays accrued coupon interest in each transaction in addition to the sum of deal. Bank of Russia changes quotes weekly with the exception of the "special week". Market for this issue is very thin and there is almost no secondary trading. Investors were willing to buy Bonds since their yield was slightly higher then that of other available money market instruments. As a result offices of Bank of Russia (official sellers of those Bonds) have sold all their leftover in Moscow and all neighbouring regions. In the secondary market no Bonds are available. Bank of Russia plans to redeem this "experimental" issue with the introduction of 12-month Bonds.
In the last months interests of investors and speculator are diverted from this market as the Bank of Russia started to lower yields for the Bonds.
Gold Certificates were issued by the Ministry of Finance in 1993 and were sold by the Ministry to the authorised banks. Gold Certificate is a complex derivative financial instrument similar to the gold futures contract in some ways.
Face value of a Certificate constitutes 10 kg of gold. As a collateral 100 tons of gold is reserved by the Russian Committee for the Precious Metals and Jewellery. At the redemption between September 27 and October, 1994 an owner can choose between cash redemption and physical gold delivery.
Trimester rouble coupon payments are made to the owners. Payment is calculated on the first day of the trimester based on the face value at the price for 0.9999 pure gold on London market (second fixing) and coupon rate of 1/4 of the LIBOR 3-month rate plus 0.75%.
Certificates are issued in registered form. Ministry of Finance keeps the register of the owners and performs registration of all trades. Ministry of Finance sells certificates at a premium.
There is no secondary market for the Certificates. Even the primary placing is now almost frozen. Foreign investors show very small interest in this instrument because it is disputable whether Russia has the right to work in this way with gold tied by some international obligations related to Russian indebtedness before foreign creditors.
There are no publicly recognised market indices in Russia. Various newspapers and information providers publish their own information. In the absence of publicly available information it is hard to estimate reliability of various methods as well as reliability of price information.. However there are some widely recognised equity indices, supported mostly by the high reputation of information agencies calculating them.
SPCA is a recognised information agency. They provide all kinds of market information and company information. The major index available is ASP-General.
ASP-General is a capitalisation-weighted index. It is calculated for the relatively short period of time. Calculation of a capitalisation-weighted index became possible only after the sufficient development of the market itself. The broad circle of big and medium-sized companies traded in Russian markets is included in the ASP-General.
On the September 1, 1994 Moscow based English-language newspaper "Moscow Times" started publication of the MT Index. It is capitalisation-weighted index calculated on the performance of 30 largest traded issues in the Russian market. All biggest privatised enterprises are included. Calculation is performed also by SPCA. Index is supervised by the Advisory Board of market professionals and international experts.
a) The summer of 1994 was the most outstanding period in the history of Russian securities market so far. There were 2 processes going simultaneously.
The first was an enormous growth of the privatised enterprises equity. After the end of voucher privatisation program some enterprises showed from 4 to 10-fold growth in 3 months. Together with the inflation stabilisation it is seen as a sign of the economy stabilisation and even as a sign of some development.
The second process was a development of a huge number of various investment scam schemes, pyramid schemes, etc. by a number of public companies and financial trusts. A huge amount of money attracted by those companies (it is estimated that 10 biggest got some billions of dollars) brought the financial market to the attention of state authorities. Scandals around those scams call for actions from the government and parliament.
b) Attempts to close many gaps in the corporate law and securities trading regulations were made. The president's decrees and various instructions of ministries proved ineffective. All government agencies mentioned above together with the President Securities and Exchange Commission and Central Bank tried to create a new regulation. But political debates and an absence of the unified regulatory scheme prevented any effective measures.
It is awaited that new corporate law and new law on the securities market will be placed before the parliament in the fall of 1994. Those laws will govern creation of companies, shareholder's rights, securities trading and settlement and other issues still not covered by the current legislation.
c) The major changes present in the drafts of the new laws available now are the following:
We have to mention that the drafts we surveyed are not necessarily the same which will be passed to parliament. Heavy changes can be made in the parliaments hearings also. It is impossible to predict now what will be the position of a major political parties to the development of a financial market and especially to the securities market.
State securities are issued in various forms. Follows the general overview of state instruments and registration practices.
Short term debt is completely dematerialised issue of registered securities. The settlement is performed via accounts in the depository of Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange. Only authorised traders (mostly banks) are allowed to trade this instrument on the Exchange directly. Other investors are obliged to keep their securities with the authorised traders and settle transactions through them.
Dollar-denominated debt is an issue of bearer securities. Settlement is performed by the physical delivery. Banks and specialised depositories offer services of an immobilisation for this instruments.
Gold certificates are registered securities issued in the certificated form. The register is kept at the Ministry of Finance. The settlement is performed by the reporting to the Ministry of Finance. Old certificates are cancelled by the Ministry and new issued in the name of a new owner.
Almost all Russian banks issue shares in the certificated form. Banks themselves keep the registers of their shareholders and perform cancellation and issue of certificates. Several banks are creating the networks of transfer agents to allow the quick registration of transactions. But for almost all banks the safest way to make delivery is to report transaction to the bank itself or to its branch office.
The majority of privatised enterprises are issuing uncertificated shares. The names of shareholders are entered in the registers kept with the enterprise or with the registrar. Most of the registrars are located in the same town as the enterprise itself. Registrar often call themselves "depositories" and perform settlement via shareholders accounts for the securities they are registering. The changes are only made upon the presentation of all the documents for the transaction. Sometimes registrar asks for an additional information, establishes prohibitive service prices and in other ways tries to deny registration. This situation draws close attention of various government agencies and is slowly changing to the better.
Private enterprises (mostly venture-capital types) were first companies in Russia to turn to the securities market for the financing. For this reason they along with the banks have now the most elaborate and effective settlement systems. First depositories and networks of transfer agents were created by them.
Almost all such companies are using the bearer depository certificates issue now.
Bearer depository certificates were introduced quite recently by some of new venture-capital private issuers. They offer an easy way to overcome the restriction on the registered form for all equity instruments in Russia. This certificates are designed for the investment in the absence of the market infrastructure. They are used now only for the shares issues.
According to the term of their issue bearer certificates are issued by certain entity (depository, group of founders, etc.) as an evidence that certain amount of shares is deposited with it. The certificate can be transferred physically. Any person possessing the certificate has the right to demand entry of his name in the company register.
Issuer can restrict the rights of the holder of such a certificate in certain ways. For some issues certificate owner is deprived of his right to participate in the shareholders meeting. All certificates have a dividend coupons attached though, and certificate owner can receive his dividends with the authorised paying agents.
Issuers use different means to discourage actual registration of shares represented by the bearer certificates. For some issues such a registration is open only in one place. Almost all private issuers offer lotteries for the owners of the certificates.
Bearer depository certificates represent single most liquid form of securities issue now in Russia.
Nominee ownership was introduced in the Russian legislation by the Presidential Decree "On the measures to ensure shareholder rights". More requirements and obligations for the nominees are placed in the "Regulations on the shareholders register" and "Regulations on the depositories" issued by the Presidential Commission on the Securities and Stock Exchanges. According to the aforementioned documents, nominee owner is any person which is not an owner of the securities but is a possessor of the securities by the agreement with another person.
Nominee owner can possess securities by an agreement with a beneficial owner or by an agreement with another nominee owner.
Registrar of the company is obliged to register shares in the name of a nominee owner at the written request of the beneficial owner.
This concept is new to the legislation and sometimes it takes a big effort to convince a particular registrar to perform such a registration. But nominee ownership allows for the creation of an effective securities registration and settlement systems in Russia.
Nominee owner is entrusted to work only in the interests of the person with whom he has an agreement. Nominee owner is obliged to perform operations with the securities only at the direct orders of this person. Nominee owner is obliged to transfer all payments due to the actual possessor. Nominee owner can vote for the shares he has by a nominee agreement only if this agreement directly gives him this power.
Nominee owner is obliged at least once a year to disclose all information about actual owners to an issuer.
Depositories in Russia are governed only by the "Regulations on the depositories" issued by the Presidential Commission on the Securities and Stock Exchanges.
Commission has the right to license depositories. This licensing is not effected yet.
Depository offers services of the safekeeping of securities and/or book- keeping for the maintenance of the property rights for securities. For dematerialised (uncertificated) issues depository is obliged to register securities in its name as a nominee. For certificated "paper" issues depository can perform such registration if an investor demands it.
Investment institutions, stock exchanges, banks and specialised depositories have the right to offer depository services. Small number of specialised depositories is created to serve a specific needs of certain markets or participants. Banks are offering no advanced custody services yet and no settlement services at all.
Investment consultants and investment funds can not act as a depositories.
Depositories can not perform in their own name operations with the securities of their clients. They can not vote for the shares of the deponents. However special power can be granted by the clients to do voting. Depository is obliged to have operational rules and procedures and to present this documents to its clients on demand. Depository itself establishes prices for its clients.
Depositories are a developing market institution. Now they offer advanced settlement services mostly to the professional clients, like investment funds o broker/dealer firms. They demand different payments for their services. For a broker/dealer firm it can be a flat fee for each transaction in the range 1 000 - 10 000 roubles. For an investment fund it can be an annual fee of 0.01% - 0.05% of average net asset value.
The most difficult and costly procedures are an initial registration of shares from the name of a beneficiary to the name of a depository as a nominee (depositing of shares) and complementary procedure of withdrawal. Those procedures include negotiations with the issuer or registrar to make shares eligible for the safekeeping and settlement through the depository. Here investor often is obliged to pay all direct costs of a depository (including travel expenses and fee established by the registrar of shares).
Basically, there are no unified standards or government guidelines for the development of national clearing and settlement infrastructure recognised by each responsible government body. Nevertheless creation of the all-Russia infrastructure for the settlement of securities transactions goes on. Private and governmental initiatives are developing. Now several depositories and banks offer their services as a settlement and clearing agents both for the exchange and for the OTC markets.
Absence of a legislation on the custodian and nominee creates severe obstacles in the development of an infrastructure. Dividend distribution through the depositories is a big problem now. As a majority of a privatised issuers are not paying any dividends, there are almost no practice in this field. When the payments are made, issuer prefers transfer money directly to the accounts specified by a depository.
There is little hope that a unified centralised system of securities trading and settlement will develop throughout Russia in the nearest years. Certain segments of the market will be developed sooner, but all-encompassing system will not appear because of the political and competitiveness reasons. Financial groups and regions are creating their own market systems. Establishment of links between this systems is on the way.
Regionalisation of the market creates difficulties in the creation of the single market. Big issuers (privatised and new companies) prefer to have a direct control over their shares and are not very eager to give this control to any exchanges. This situation is changing for the privatised enterprises as they are making new issues to raise money.
The main governmental initiatives are now implemented by the State Committee for the Management of State Property (GKI). GKI is working together with foreign and international supporting agencies (USAID, World Bank, IFC, etc.) on the technical support programs for the securities market. This project is based upon the ideology of Clearing and settlement organisations and independent register holders . These project goes under patronage of GKI and international donors and is performed with a lot of help from foreign financial advisors. However, the main problems of this project are:
Now Deloitte & Touche are supervising creation of a settlement organisation in Moscow, KPMG - in St. Petersburg. KPMG is working on the creation of computerised OTC market in Moscow and in Far East.
Several foreign financial institution are now considering possibilities to offer custodian services in Russia. According to our information Credit Swiss, City Bank and Chase Manhattan are looking to the extension of their global custody to Russia. But an absence of any legislation in the field doesn't allow them to start operations.
The next project in general can be characterised as a self-organising movement of Russian register holders and depositories. These are different organisations with all of them having very mediocre results in terms of unifying the standards and bringing intensive interbroker and interregional transactions to their infrastructure.
Basic problems for these projects are the lack of resources needed to develop this unified structure, the lack of confidence in this systems by market participants as the source for standards and the same unwillingness of the issuers to give up their registers to the members of those movements. The main private initiatives are centred around financial institutions already offering custodian, clearing and settlement services to their clients. Banks and specialised depositories, especially those servicing big investment funds, are creating networks of agents and correspondents to allow for their clients effective settlement procedures in as wide range of securities as possible.
The chief institutions trying to create national-wide networks are:
Some of them already work in co-operation with the GKI-supported projects. Depository Clearing Corporation project is designed in accordance with the international standards and with the help of foreign consultants. But only a small volume of actual deposits is performed up to now. Only 10 securities issues are eligible. RINACO Depository has a 2 years market experience and more then 100 different issues are eligible for its keeping. RINACO Depository is a proprietary system developed to serve primarily big Russian institutional investors.
This two entities are now competing in Moscow for the services in the developing Moscow OTC market.
Almost all market in the Far East of Russia is concentrated on the Vladivostok International Stock Exchange and transactions are cleared through its depository.
There are no significant specialised settlement and clearing organisation in other regions of Russia. The deals are settled directly through the registers kept by issuers or their affiliated registrars.
The last project is developed by the experts employed by the Central Bank Securities Department. Generally that is an idea to develop the national clearing and settlement system on the basis of T-bills trading on Moscow and five regional currency exchanges and then use this infrastructure to develop the unique depository standards for trading with bank stocks. However this approach looks to be far from the implementation stage. Networks of linked depositories are created in the same way as a networks of correspondent banks are created. Through the direct correspondent accounts transactions between market participants can be settled regardless of the geography of trading.
Different systems are coming to the agreement on their standards now. Unification of the settlement system is awaited in the end of 1994 - beginning of 1995.
The best solution for the Russian securities market lies in the creation of a national-wide network of depositories linked via the correspondent accounts without any apparent centre. This network will work according to common standards and offer services to the securities market professionals. Creation of such a network is already going and its formation can be completed in the beginning of 1995.
As it was mentioned earlier, various sectors of the Russian securities market are governed by various governmental authorities. If a new Law on securities and securities market will be effected, situation in this field can change. Ministry of Finance and Central Bank are supervising the activities in their fields of jurisdiction. State Committee for the Management of State Property supervises primary market for the shares of privatised enterprises and has a power to influence those companies in which controlling stake is still state- owned.
Presidential Commission on the Securities and Stock Exchanges includes members from all the governmental agencies involved in the regulation of a securities market. Those are:
Commission is created by the President Decree and there are no laws mentioning the Commission. Therefore commission still has no direct authority over securities market participants. Only governance of the registrars and depositories was entrusted to it by the Presidential Decree. New Law (if effected) can give to the Commission other powers. Probably Commission will be empowered to govern all matters of trading and settlement, while issue of shares will be left in the hands of Ministry of Finance and Central Bank. Those problems are now matters of a political struggle. Securities and exchange laws can appear only in the late fall of 1994.
All the problems and complains arising in the securities business can be brought before an appropriate supervising and licensing agency. As this agencies have the right to withdraw licenses and use other measures against unfair business practices, it can be efficient way to resolve problems. General arbitrage and court procedures are also available. Now in Russia exists very thin legislation governing property rights and especially relationships in the securities market. Courts are inexperienced in this matters and certain problems just cannot be resolved under current legislation.
Exchange and certain broker/dealer associations have their own internal arbitrage courts designed to resolve problems arising between members of exchange or association.
Foreign entities operating in Russia have the right to appeal to the Arbitrage Court of the Russian Trade and Commerce Chamber, if this appeal was agreed upon in the violated agreement.
Self-regulatory organisation are formed now in Russia. They have no power over the market participants yet. But those organisations are already participating in the legislation development and try to influence their members and impose the high professional standards.
Two associations are based in Moscow - Professional Association of Registrars, Transfer-Agents and Depositories (PARTAD) and Professional Association of Securities Market Participants (PASMP). The first unites organisations involved in the infrastructure development, the second is founded by 15 major Moscow broker/dealers. Some organisations are members of both associations.
The association already proved to be an effective tool in the conflict resolution in some cases. More details on the PASMP are contained in the survey of the market.
It is very hard to estimate market capitalisation for the Russian securities market. Some figure given below are based upon the statistics for the most liquid Russian stocks traded on OTC secondary market.
Date In Roubles, bn In USD, mln 07/01/1992 20 150 01/01/1993 50 120 07/01/1993 300 280 01/01/1994 1000 800 07/01/1994 11000 5500USD estimates for the capitalisation are calculated with rouble to USD rate on the dates for which the capitalisation volumes are reported.
Sharp increase of total stock market capitalisation in 1994 is due to privatization of huge Russian state companies like Unified Energy System of Russia, Rostelecom, Yuganskneftegaz, Komineft as well as to extremely successful placements of stock made by Russian venture capital companies like MMM, OLBI-Diplomat, Car Alliance and others. OTC trading vs. exchange trading.
The major volume of securities trading in Russia is performed over the counter. Exchanges still play mostly no role in such important market as a market of the shares of privatised enterprises.
Due to the absence of reliable statistics for volumes of secondary trading with stocks it is hard to provide correct estimations on the ratios of trading held at exchanges versus OTC trading activities. There are the following reasons for these simple ratios not to be calculated:
OTC trading is held through non-organised markets which do not allow to measure volumes of trading correctly. The trading is mostly done on the basis of direct broker-to broker calls without so far any computerised system to link brokers together.
Several information agencies and newspapers publicise bids and asks of various market makers. Brokerage firms often call each other just to know current prices for most liquid issues. Voucher investment funds from all over the country are distributing their asset reports (mostly consisting of small- known regional enterprises) hoping to attract buyers.
However, some estimates made on the basis of publicly available information and information from market-makers allow to estimate the trading volume on OTC market in June, 1994 as USD 500 mln while the volumes of trading with stocks at exchanges was about USD 4 mln. OTC market is based upon the mixed order- driven and quotation- driven set of principles. Thus, for the stocks issued by banks there exists almost always market-maker's system for pricing and trading of this stocks. Some of the most liquid stocks issued by privatised and venture capital companies are also traded on quotation-driven basis
However, the bulk of stocks are traded on order-driven principle - they are not liquid enough and brokers are not willing to take risks announcing their fixed quotations.
OTC market is totally unregulated financial market. There are some occasional appeals for self-regulation -- the most recent examples are establishment of Professional Association of Securities Market Participants.
Among the founders of the PASMP are:
This Association receives technical assistance of USAID. KPMG Peat Marwick is helping to provide co-ordination of brokers efforts to organise secondary trading with stocks via computerised dealing system. The start of the trading is expected in the end of September 1994. The publication of prices will be done through all major information agencies and newspapers. Members of PASMP developed rules of fair practice and dealing with the clients in hope to achieve more liquid and transparent market. Some listing requirements are prepared because no one wants to trade with the "fake" companies shares. The major difficulties in the creation of a computerised OTC market are the following:
However until now there are no clearing and settlement standards for OTC brokers, and almost 90% of trading is held out of the self-regulated brokers' associations. The settlement is done directly through the shareholder's registers and often requires flights across Russia to register a transfer at the issuer location in Siberia of Far East. This is partly the reason why Moscow market is a market for big blocks of shares now. Major market makers listed above almost never perform sales in amounts less then 500 000 USD. The average size of a buy is lower and it is possible to sell directly to the market maker as small a lot as 10 000 USD. Moscow market is now a market for big orders and liquidity is rising with the size of the package involved.
Some big firms not actually registered as a professional securities market participants are working on the market with speculative as well as with long- term goals. However he sign of the maturing of the OTC market (besides constantly rising volumes of trading and emergence of derivatives market) is that everybody knows recognised brokers and market-makers and that a lot of deals are striken on the basis of telephone agreements.
The basic document to regulate Russian stock exchanges activities is The regulations for the Issue and Circulation of Securities and for Stock Exchanges in the RSFSR" of 1992, which determines legal requirements to stock exchanges foundation, principles of organisation, taxation and licensing.
The government body responsible to regulate Russian stock exchanges is Russian Ministry of Finance (MOF). This agency has right to license stock exchanges as well as to withdraw licenses. Stock exchanges are obligated to provide monthly reports to MOF.
Today as much as 110 exchanges received licenses to host stock market trading activities and at least 10 exchanges had been already forces to suspend trading activities because of some faults admitted.
Up to the date regulation of stock exchanges has very general form and hadn't been worked out in detail. There is no legal requirements in Russia to organisation of listing expertise at stock exchanges, no unified standards for clearing and settlement procedures as well as for stock exchanges public reporting. Moreover, official information generated by stock exchanges is usually considered by market participants as not reliable because financial brokers often practice "empty transactions" at stock exchanges aimed to influence price situation on the market without actual trading with stocks. This practice appeared on the market because of very poor regulation for trading process at stock exchanges where exchanges' officials are rather more interested to show big volumes instead of care about trading process organisation.
As there are no requirements on this issue, stock exchanges almost always have no unified clearance and settlement procedures. When the deal is executed, brokers usually have to negotiate directly on the terms of money and securities transfer. This practice can only encourage "empty transactions" mentioned above.
For the most of Russian stock exchanges the quotation-driven principle is utilised to organise trading with securities. Market-makers almost always offer their quotations in the OTC market, and exchanges usually tend to appoint known brokers as specialists on each stock listed at the exchange. It is worth mentioning that in Moscow and in St. Petersburg, where still exists more then one exchange, it is not unusual for the brokerage firm to become member on several of them.
However, if about 70% of companies are traded on the exchanges at quotation-driven principle, the rest 30% of companies are traded on the basis of order-driven (auction) model and the volume of trading on order-driven model is far beyond 80% of all trading held at the exchanges. Order-driven model is applied to organise trading with stocks of emerged Russian venture-capital companies (their bearer's CDS) as well as for the trading with some key stocks at Vladivostok International Stock Exchange (the only "real" exchange market in Russia). Development.
Exchanges became a necessary part of trading infrastructure only on those markets there some external force restricted trading in the OTC form. In this manner Central Bank restricted trading of Short-Term Bonds to MICEX authorised dealers, or local authorities and directors of privatised enterprises supported exchange trading in Vladivostok.
Very interesting way of development was chosen at the Stock Department of Russian Commodities and Raw Materials Exchange (Moscow). The RCRME opened its doors to the general public, and allowed brokers to turn their booths into the small "stock shops". Auctions are held on the floor and all persons in the hall are allowed to participate in them. This is done ofcourse only for the bearer instruments and cash settlement is done from hand to hand. While this approach is not working with the shares of majority of privatised enterprises, it helps exchange to survive and to acquire some name.
There are almost no sources of publicly available information to estimate liquidity in the Russian securities market. There are three basic sources of the data for the estimations:
All trades executed at the exchanges are reported to the Ministry of Finance. This information is published quoterly. The main problem here is that almost no market takes place on the exchanges. For the privatised oil and gaz enterprises no transactions are reported on any of the Russian exchanges. Exchange transactions are sometimes a "faked" ones. Vladivostok International Stock Exchange is one exception. Almost all Far East stock market is carried through this exchange. Unfortunately only two or three Far East enterprises are traded nation-wide so far. Broker reporting.
Brokers report their OTC transaction to the major news-agencies and newspapers on a voluntarily basis. Reporting of market-makers is often affected by their policies. There are no way to check this transactions and prices reported.
Shareholders register information. Registration of share in the name of new owner requires reporting of purchase price according to the current legislation. Issuer is not obliged to disclose this information, and it is almost never done. Even if an information from the issuer is available, there are no ways to check it. Market participants often try to make the registered price smaller for the taxation purposes.
Creation of professional dealers associations with their organised OTC market systems will help in the disclosure of trading information. We hope that in the end of 1994 real volume will be reported for all shares traded nation-wide.
Figures shown below are not very encouraging. But it is a reasonable assumption that real market volume is from 5 to 10 times bigger than reported one. For some enterprises the reported volume just doesn't exists (see Part 4 ).
Major Russian banks have from 5 to 15 per cent of their capital traded. Occasional deals for as much as 20 % occur, but even the deals for greater then 1 % of the capital are kept secret. Privatised enterprises have the boom of liquidity in the first 3-4 months after an auction. During this period the reorganisation of shareholders structure takes place.
After the first 3-4 months following the offering, both for banks and for privatised enterprises there are not many shares left for the market. Big packages are held by a strategic investors or by an institutional investors with time horizon between 2 and 5 years (approximately). It is very hard to buy shares at this time, but it is relatively easy to sell a big package if such a need arises.
This gives us a reason to believe that liquidity of the equity market now in Russia is high enough to allow portfolio investments. The danger of liquidity gap is relatively low.
This part of the report is based on the registered trades reported by all Russian exchanges and on the OTC trades reported by the known market- makers for issues included. Information is provided by the Skate Press Consulting Agency and by the Vladivostok International Stock Exchange. The numbers are derived from the small transactions mostly. There are no reporting on the big deals, especially for banks. There are no guarantees to the reliability or the authenticity of the information included.
Average reported weekly volumes of trading for major traded banks are:
TORYBANK - USD 1 000
St.Peterburg Bank - USD 3 000
GLORYBANK - USD 300
INCOMBANK - USD 30 000
Mytischenskii Commercial Bank - USD 300
Sberbank - USD 8 000
VITABANK - USD 1 700
PROMSTROYBANK - USD 4 000
It is safe to assume that for major banks real OTC volume is at least 5 times higher.
Far East Shipping Company - USD 1 200
East Port - USD 500
Vladivostok Trading Port - USD 900
Only estimations are available for the privatised enterprises volumes of trading. It is possible to assume that average monthly turnover in shares of KomiNeft, Yugankneftegaz, LukOil exceeds USD 10 mln in each market. Supply of those shares is already scarce (after 4-5 months of trading) and prices are raising sharply. Demand increases and it is very easy to sell a big package now.
Trade house GUM., the biggest department store chain in Moscow, is traded with the average amount of trading of USD 800 000 per month.
[ InfoMarket ]