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At the most obvious level of description, we build scenarios -- plausible stories about the future. These stories are tools for the mind, artifacts that help us discriminate between what's important and what's not. Peter Schwartz, president and founder of the premier scenario developing consultancy, Global Business Network, has described the values of these tools in a delightful metaphor.
Imagine that you are a well-practiced actor in a repertory theater. One week you come into work and your director hands you a copy of The Tempest. You learn your part and practice it thoroughly, preparing for the performance the following month. The next week, you walk in and the director hands you Rhinoceros, by Ionesco. A very different play from Shakespeare, but no matter: You learn those lines and practice that part. The following week, the director gives you a copy of Eugene O'Neill's Long Day's Journey into Night.When the night of the performance finally comes, you walk up on the stage. The stage lights come on, and your are given your first line. But you don't know which play you are performing. To find out, you have to look at the scenery around you. Hopefully, you had enough sense to talk to the stage manager and find out what each set looks like in detail -- so that, by fixing on only one or two details, you will be able to tell. If there's a palm tree, its the shipwreck/island setting of The Tempest. A bottle of beer on a cafe table suggests Rhinoceros. And a lamp, the kind you might see in a 1920s living room, lets you know you're in the O'Neill play.
That's what using scenarios is like. In the real world, you don't know ahead of time which scenario will take place. But you prepare for all three, and then train yourself to look for one or two small details so that you can recognize the full play before you're called upon to act.
...from The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz, Doubleday, 1991, p. 199.