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Author: F. Heylighen, C. Joslyn,
Date : Jan 26, 1996 (modified); Jan 1992 (created)
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Since we regard knowledge as a model which makes predictions, and we regard Metasystem Transition Theory as such a model, it must be an essential task of this theory to make predictions about the future of evolution itself, and especially about the next metasystem transition that will bring us to a higher evolutionary level. This level may be characterized by evolution at the level of memes rather than genes, by cybernetic immortality of indivduals, and by the emergence of "super-beings" or "meta-beings".
In making these predictions, a fallacy to avoid is the naive extrapolation of past evolution into the present or future. The mechanisms of survival and adaptation that were developed during evolution contain a lot of wisdom --- about past situations. They are not necessarily adequate for present circumstances. This must be emphasized especially in view of the creativity of evolution: the emergence of new levels of complexity, governed by novel laws.
The breakdown of quantitative extrapolation from existing trends is illustrated most clearly by the concept of singularity: the place where the value of a mathematical function becomes infinite, so that normal mathematical operations (differentiation, integration, extrapolation) fail. An example of a singularity in the fabric of space-time is the inside of a black hole or the origin of the universe in the Big Bang. If variables describing progress (such as technological innovation, or total amount of scientific knowledge produced) are mapped on a diagram, it is remarkable how much their increase over time is accelerating. This increase seems at least exponential but perhaps even hyperbolic (implying that infinity will be reached within a finite time). Neither form of increase can be sustained in the same form, implying that some radical change of process must take place, e.g. like a technological singularity or phase transition.
The concept of metasystem transition, through the "law of the branching growth of the penultimate level", includes such a phase of self-reinforcing acceleration of development of the last level of organization accompanied by the emergence of a next level. It seems likely that this is exactly what is happening in our present society, where the level of thinking is presently exploding, possibly to be supplemented by a "metarational" level characterized by a superhuman intelligence.
See also: Vernor Vinge on the Singularity
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