Pulsar Search



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Pulsar Search

A pulsar search of the x-ray data was carried out for two epochs, one when the x-ray flux was high and one when the flux was low. Two methods were used to search for periodic variations. As a quick initial check we used the FFT algorithm provided in the standard PROS x-ray analysis software. Data gaps were replaced by the average count rate.

In 1987, E.T. Jaynes (1987) derived the Fourier transform statistic directly from the principles of Bayesian probability theory. In the process he demonstrated that it was optimum for the detection of a single sinusoidal signal in the presence of Gaussian white noise. A corollary is that for any other problem (i.e. non sinusoidal lightcurve, and or non Gaussian white noise) use of the FFT is not optimal. As a second search technique, we employed the Gregory-Loredo Algorithm (Gregory and Loredo 1992, 1993): a Baysian method for detecting a periodic signal of unknown shape in a Poisson time series. This method uses Bayes's theorem to address both the signal detection problem and the estimation problem of measuring the characteristics of a detected signal. To address the detection problem Bayes's theorem is used to compare a constant rate model for the signal to a class of models capable of accounting for a periodic structure of arbitrary shape. The periodic models describe the signal plus background rate as a histogram in bins per period, for various values of . The Bayesian posterior probability for a periodic model contains a term which quantifies Ockham's razor, penalizing successively more complicated periodic models for their greater complexity even though they are assigned equal prior probabilities. The calculation balances model simplicity with goodness of fit, allowing us to determine both whether there is evidence for a periodic signal, and the optimum number of bins for describing the structure in the data. The method readily handles data gaps and the outcome does not depend on the number of periods examined, but only on the range examined. The probability of the class of periodic models as a whole is found by marginalizing (integrating) over all the shapes it can describe. A special feature of this choice of periodic models is that the needed marginalizations can be performed analytically, leading to an algorithm with computational speed comparable to that of the popular epoch folding method based on . The odds is defined as the ratio of the posterior probability of the periodic class as a whole to the probability of the constant model. A detection is indicated by an odds greater than one. Once a signal is detected the method employs Bayes's theorem to rigorously estimate the various parameters of the signal, such as the frequency and shape of the lightcurve. For a detailed comparison of the Gregory-Loredo and epoch folding methods see Gregory and Loredo (1995).

Neither the FFT nor Gregory-Loredo methods yielded a significant periodic signal detection in the range 1.5 milliseconds to 3000 s. Our conclusions for periods below about 10 milliseconds are probably unreliable as the accuracy of the final corrected photon arrival times is probably of the order of 1 millisecond.



next up previous
Next: Discussion Up: Analysis Previous: Radio versus X-ray



Glen Young
Wed Apr 26 17:21:11 MDT 1995